Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Avalanche Draft Issues

The image you see above is that of 2014 first round pick Conner Bleackley. He was taken by the Colorado Avalanche 23rd overall that year, but never signed with them, as issues with him and the Avs coaching staff surfaced over Bleackley's physical condition. He would eventually be traded to Arizona in the Mikkel Boedker deal, but never signed there, either, thus rendering him eligible to re-enter this year's NHL Draft. This is a lead-in to the overall issues that have plagued the Avalanche at the drafting table since the time they relocated from Quebec in 1995. So, to that end, let's look at the first round picks the Avs have made since they joined and the later round picks that have succeeded, for the Avs and otherwise.

1995-2004: The Golden Years

1995 saw the Avalanche at the drafting table for the first time since they moved to Colorado earlier that Spring. Their first ever pick was goaltender Marc Denis, who was viewed as an eventual challenger and/or replacement to Jocelyn Thibault, who was okay, but never great. The problem was that a few months later, Thibault would be included in a trade that saw the Avs pick up Patrick Roy, and the rest was history. As for Denis, he suited up for 28 games in Colorado, but spent the majority of his career in Columbus, where he posted just one season under the 3.00 GAA mark. The next most number of games played that draft year belongs to Brent Johnson, who never played for the Avs, but did man the crease for St. Louis, Phoenix, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Washington.

1996 was the draft after they won the Stanley Cup that year, and like 1995, the ramifications of the Draft were never truly evident. However, the Avs could have had players such as Mark Parrish and Sami Pahlsson, as both had the most number of games played that draft year, but none for Colorado. Parrish would experience most of his success in Florida and Long Island while Pahlsson would carve out a nice spot on Anaheim's squad for much of his career. Brian Willsie and Dan Hinote were next in line, and both did play for Colorado when they won the Cup in 2001. As for who they took first, it was Peter Ratchuk, who played all of 32 NHL games for Florida after failing to sign with the Avs two years after he was drafted.

1997 was not a good year to be taken first or second by the Avs, as neither Kevin Grimes nor Graham Belak played a game in the NHL. However, that year's draft did yield key players such as Ville Nieminen and David Aebsicher, who was the one to finally succeed Roy in net once he retired after the 2002-03 season.

1998 was a year that the Avs couldn't possibly screw up, as they had four first round picks that year. Well, they succeeded mostly, as Alex Tanguay was a major player in the 2001 Cup run, as were Martin Skoula and Scott Parker. However, the fourth, Robyn Regehr, never got to play for the Avs, as he was included in the trade that brought in Theo Fleury for a few games in 1999. Regehr would go on to play a number of years for Calgary, making the Finals with them in 2004. As for the rest of the draft, the only one of note would be Steve Moore, who made headlines as the victim of an attack on the ice by Todd Bertuzzi in 2004.

1999 was an interesting draft, as their best player was a seventh round pick by the name of Radim Vrbata, who played a couple of seasons in Colorado before moving around to Carolina, Tampa Bay, Phoenix, and Vancouver. Other players with fairly significant NHL resumes were Jeff Finger, Branko Radivojevic, and Riku Hahl. Mikhail Kuleshov was taken in the first round that year, and he only suited up for three games in the NHL.

2000 was a mostly forgettable year for the Avs, as Vaclav Nedorost missed the century mark in games played in the NHL by one. The two highest numbers in games played: John-Michael Liles (800) and Kurt Sauer (357).

2001 was another post-Stanley Cup draft for the Avs, and this one would be slightly more memorable. The Avs didn't have a first round pick that year, as that was sent to Los Angeles in the Rob Blake deal, not a bad trade-off. Their first pick was in the second round, and Peter Budaj, who actually held the starting job for the Avs for a couple of seasons in the late 2000's. He was mostly a backup for the Avs and in Montreal. Other players of note include Marek Svatos and Cody McCormick, who were the only other players to even crack the double digit mark in games played.

2002 would be remember as the Draft that got away, as the two players with the highest number of games played achieved moderate success elsewhere, as Tom Gilbert and Johnny Boychuk established themselves as regular NHLers on other teams, Gilbert with Edmonton, Minnesota, and Montreal, and Boychuk in Boston and Long Island. Meanwhile, their first major cracks in the armor began to show, as years of either trading away promising prospects or whiffing on their picks began to take their toll, and never was that more than evident than when the Avs took Jonas Johansson, who only played one game in the NHL.

2003 was where the Avs could have stemmed the tide of bad drafting, but instead, thanks to the Rob Blake trade that also saw that year's first round pick going to Los Angeles, they missed out on possibly getting Corey Perry. They had to wait until the second round (at 63rd overall, like in 2001) to pick up David Liffiton, who played all of seven NHL games. As a matter of fact, the only players drafted that year to play in the NHL at all besides Liffiton: David Jones and Brad Richardson, role players that have carved out decent careers in their respective roles.

2004 was where things really hit the fan, as only their first round pick Wojtek Wolski played more than 200 games. However, he didn't quite live up to the billing, as in 451 games, he only netted 99 goals. The only other contributors were Brandon Yip and Victor Oreskovich, neither of whom did anything resembling NHL regulars work.

Post-lockout Years

2005 was the first major year where the Avs would be forced to draft and groom prospects, so what did they do? Trade their first round pick to Washington to pick up extra draft picks in the second round. It turns out that none of the picks did very much, as the Capitals took Joe Finley, who didn't do much while the Avs' two second round picks from that deal did absolutely nothing in the NHL (read: neither played a game). As for their first pick, it was Ryan Stoa, who played all of 40 games in the NHL. They did, however, hit a bullseye when with the following pick, they took Paul Stastny, who played with the Avs until 2014 and contributed a significant amount even during the leanest years. Of course, there were the two second round picks after that. You can't win them all.

2006 was a terrible year for the Avs, as the only player to even play a game in the NHL would be their first round pick Chris Stewart, who was wildly inconsistent while with the Avs. He could score 30 goals one season and in the next, barely crack the double digit mark. He has had stops in St. Louis, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Anaheim, where his inconsistencies have followed him.

2007 was a better time...barely. First round pick Kevin Shattenkirk would be classified as a bullseye, although his best years happened after he was traded to St. Louis along with Stewart in a deal that saw Erik Johnson and Jay McClement come to Colorado. Shattenkirk is entering the final year of his current deal, and he's been a consistent offensive contributor from the blue line. While T.J. Galliardi and Brad Malone weren't major contributors, they did manage to play over 150 games each.

The terrible drafting continued in 2008, as none of the draft picks played over 100 games to date, and that doesn't figure to change next season. Cameron Gaunce was their first pick, as their first round pick went first to Columbus as a means to pick Adam Foote up in February 2008, and then to Philadelphia in the RJ Umberger trade. He only played 20 games and never cracked the blue line for Colorado in regular duty.

2009 was the first good draft in a while, as they hit on Matt Duchene with the third overall pick, Ryan O'Reilly in the second round, and Tyson Barrie in the third round. They did miss on Stefan Elliott, who couldn't crack regular duty on the blue line alongside Barrie. O'Reilly made his first all-star game with Buffalo this season while Duchene also made the all-star game this year.

2010 was mostly terrible, as first round pick Joey Hishon got injured the following year in the Memorial Cup tournament and never cracked the NHL squad on a regular basis, although he did get into a few playoff games in 2014 for the Avs. Hishon recently signed to play in the KHL for next season. The player with the most games played? Michael Bournival, with 89 games, and none of them for Colorado. There is promise with Calvin Pickard, who appears to be the starter-in-waiting should the Avs deal Semyon Varlamov.

2011 was another terrible year of drafting (notice a trend?), as only Gabriel Landeskog has done anything of note. The second overall pick won the Calder Trophy his first year and was named captain the following year, but since then, he's had his share of ups and downs. The other first round pick was Duncan Siemens, who played just one game in the NHL and couldn't get out of the AHL for what is likely his last time in the Colorado system, as they could non-tender him as a RFA.

2012 was another disatrous year, as the Avs traded their first round pick for Varlamov when they could have stood pat and taken Filip Forsberg. They had to wait until the second round to pick, and that pick, Mitchell Heard, never suited up for Colorado. The player with the most games of this draft class? Joseph Blandisi, who didn't sign with the Avs and was snagged by New Jersey in 2015 as a free-agent. He played 41 games this season for the Devils and figures to have a role next season with them.

2013 saw the Avs hit rock bottom, as they were second to last in the league, but won the lottery to pick first overall. They took Nathan MacKinnon, who has played well when healthy, but that's been a bit of an issue, as he's missed time in the last two seasons. Chris Bigras figures to have a spot next season with a good training camp.

2014 and 2015 are still to be determined, but it's safe to say that picking Conner Bleackley ended up being a wasted pick, as they never signed him and now he's draft eligible again this year. Mikko Rantanen, the 2015 top pick, figures to be more of a sure thing, as he played very well in the Avs' AHL affiliate in San Antonio and a spot on the NHL roster waits for him next season.

Analysis

In their history at the Draft, the Avs have had their fair share of successes. However, thanks to their perpetual win-now mode of the late 90's and early 2000's, their drafting and developing of prospects suffered greatly, and the results began to show after the 2004 lockout. Dreadful drafts after the lockout and an ill-advised trade (they could have had Varlamov without trading that first round pick in 2012) saw the Avs at the bottom for much of the time, with only a smattering of playoff success. It's time for the Avs to improve their drafting or else the bad times will continue.

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