First Round Goalies: An Extinct Species?

photo by Bill Tenca: www.puckstopperphotography.com

In the last piece I did about how the ping pong balls went for the NHL Draft Lottery last week, one question was raised by a reader. How have there been fewer goalies selected in the first round since 2012? For this answer, it requires a deep level of research, and for the purposes of this piece, I will limit the net to the 2000s.

Since the 2000 NHL Draft, there have been 31 goalies drafted in the first round, and only two since 2013 (Ilya Samsonov in 2015 and Jake Oettenger in 2017). For reference purposes, no goalies have been taken in all of the other years in that time span, although there may in fact, be a goalie that will be drafted in the first round this year in Spencer Knight of the US U-18 team. Even then, he's not projected to go until the middle of the first round, at best. So, what happened to the days where an elite goaltender could be picked up within the top 10 picks?

• Let's start with the starting goalies in this year's playoffs. Of the 16 starters, four are first round picks, and thus far, of that number, one (Semyon Varlamov) is in a time-share with another goalie, and one (Andrei Vasilievsky) is on the verge of being eliminated. A deeper look reveals that of the non-first round pick goalies, Sergei Bobrovsky was undrafted, as he was signed from the KHL, Frederik Andersen was actually drafted twice, as he didn't sign with Carolina after being drafted in 2010, and was re-drafted by Anaheim two years later, while guys like Pekka Rinne, Martin Jones, and Ben Bishop were either drafted late or weren't drafted at all.
• Going off that, since 2010, only six players were drafted in the first round. What happened to each of those guys, you ask? Excluding both Samsonov and Oettenger, who are still in the developmental stages (more on this later), Jack Campbell was drafted 10th overall in 2010 and never panned out in Dallas. He has found new life in Los Angeles, where he currently serves as a backup to Jonathan Quick. Meanwhile, Mark Visentin (pictured) was taken 26th overall by the then-Phoenix Coyotes, and like Campbell, never panned out. He recently retired after a stint in the Austrian League. Andrei Vasilievsky was taken 19th overall by Tampa Bay in 2012, and while he's been great since taking the starting role in the 2016-17 season, he has yet to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. Saying that, he's also needed at least four to five years of development, and he benefited greatly from having that time to develop while a more established starter was in place (once again, something that will be discussed later). Malcolm Subban was taken 24th overall in that same draft by Boston, and while he languished in the minors, he found new life as he was claimed by Vegas off waivers. He currently serves as a backup to Marc-Andre Fleury, and has filled in capably as a starter whenever Fleury has needed time off to injury.
• On the subject of development, an NHL goalie usually needs four to five years to become a starter because there are only two spots on the NHL roster for a goalie, and given that the learning curve for goalies is sometimes longer than even defensemen, teams are more reluctant to waste a first round pick on a goalie when other positions of need could be addressed. Even guys like Carey Price (fifth overall in 2005) require that time period before he could become a starter. In short, there just simply isn't going to be that goalie that can come in almost right away and become a starter short of others getting injured (i.e. Carter Hart). The days of a Patrick Roy, Grant Fuhr, or even Jim Carey coming in at 20 or younger aren't going to be happening very often any time soon.

What impact does this have? If you're a goalie-starved team like the Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, or even the Minnesota Wild, your plan to draft goalies should have began long before your starters either started to decline or become injury prone. Late rounds seem to be the way to go, as teams such as the Nashville Predators, Washington Capitals, and Arizona Coyotes are showing currently. The NHL Draft is a time to shore up your prospect pool, and unless you're mortgaging your future for a Cup run, it is wise to think how you're going to use your picks and know when to use a pick on goalies, or else you could end up with a Mark Visentin or Adam Munro.