First Round Goalies: An Extinct Species?

photo by Bill Tenca: www.puckstopperphotography.com

In the last piece I did about how the ping pong balls went for the NHL Draft Lottery last week, one question was raised by a reader. How have there been fewer goalies selected in the first round since 2012? For this answer, it requires a deep level of research, and for the purposes of this piece, I will limit the net to the 2000s.

Since the 2000 NHL Draft, there have been 31 goalies drafted in the first round, and only two since 2013 (Ilya Samsonov in 2015 and Jake Oettenger in 2017). For reference purposes, no goalies have been taken in all of the other years in that time span, although there may in fact, be a goalie that will be drafted in the first round this year in Spencer Knight of the US U-18 team. Even then, he's not projected to go until the middle of the first round, at best. So, what happened to the days where an elite goaltender could be picked up within the top 10 picks?

• Let's start with the starting goalies in this year's playoffs. Of the 16 starters, four are first round picks, and thus far, of that number, one (Semyon Varlamov) is in a time-share with another goalie, and one (Andrei Vasilievsky) is on the verge of being eliminated. A deeper look reveals that of the non-first round pick goalies, Sergei Bobrovsky was undrafted, as he was signed from the KHL, Frederik Andersen was actually drafted twice, as he didn't sign with Carolina after being drafted in 2010, and was re-drafted by Anaheim two years later, while guys like Pekka Rinne, Martin Jones, and Ben Bishop were either drafted late or weren't drafted at all.
• Going off that, since 2010, only six players were drafted in the first round. What happened to each of those guys, you ask? Excluding both Samsonov and Oettenger, who are still in the developmental stages (more on this later), Jack Campbell was drafted 10th overall in 2010 and never panned out in Dallas. He has found new life in Los Angeles, where he currently serves as a backup to Jonathan Quick. Meanwhile, Mark Visentin (pictured) was taken 26th overall by the then-Phoenix Coyotes, and like Campbell, never panned out. He recently retired after a stint in the Austrian League. Andrei Vasilievsky was taken 19th overall by Tampa Bay in 2012, and while he's been great since taking the starting role in the 2016-17 season, he has yet to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. Saying that, he's also needed at least four to five years of development, and he benefited greatly from having that time to develop while a more established starter was in place (once again, something that will be discussed later). Malcolm Subban was taken 24th overall in that same draft by Boston, and while he languished in the minors, he found new life as he was claimed by Vegas off waivers. He currently serves as a backup to Marc-Andre Fleury, and has filled in capably as a starter whenever Fleury has needed time off to injury.
• On the subject of development, an NHL goalie usually needs four to five years to become a starter because there are only two spots on the NHL roster for a goalie, and given that the learning curve for goalies is sometimes longer than even defensemen, teams are more reluctant to waste a first round pick on a goalie when other positions of need could be addressed. Even guys like Carey Price (fifth overall in 2005) require that time period before he could become a starter. In short, there just simply isn't going to be that goalie that can come in almost right away and become a starter short of others getting injured (i.e. Carter Hart). The days of a Patrick Roy, Grant Fuhr, or even Jim Carey coming in at 20 or younger aren't going to be happening very often any time soon.

What impact does this have? If you're a goalie-starved team like the Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, or even the Minnesota Wild, your plan to draft goalies should have began long before your starters either started to decline or become injury prone. Late rounds seem to be the way to go, as teams such as the Nashville Predators, Washington Capitals, and Arizona Coyotes are showing currently. The NHL Draft is a time to shore up your prospect pool, and unless you're mortgaging your future for a Cup run, it is wise to think how you're going to use your picks and know when to use a pick on goalies, or else you could end up with a Mark Visentin or Adam Munro.

The Luck of the Draft Draw

Yesterday, the NHL teams that didn't make the playoffs, and the Colorado Avalanche learned where they will be picking in the upcoming NHL Draft. The results are in, and for the second time in three seasons, the New Jersey Devils will be picking first overall. Their only other time picking first overall was in 2017, when they picked Nico Hischier. They are a team that desperately needs high-end talent to supplement Taylor Hall, and given that the Devils were nothing when Hall went down midway through the season, either Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko will look really good in a Devils uniform. The second overall pick will go to the New York Rangers, who are in the midst of a rebuild. Like the Devils, they also need a high-end talent to spearhead their youth movement, particularly to supplement an emerging Mika Zibanejad. Chicago also made a leap up the draft boards, as they will be drafting third overall. The last time they were in that spot was 2006, when they took some guy named Jonathan Toews. Assuming Kakko and Hughes are off the board, that leaves a couple of WHL guys in Dylan Cozens of Lethbridge and Kirby Dach of Saskatoon. In recent years, the Blackhawks have rebuilt their defensive pipeline, though its rewards won't be reaped by the time both Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook hit rock bottom. Where does that leave the Colorado Avalanche? Well, the pick they got in the Matt Duchene trade from Ottawa is now the fourth overall pick. That might be a sigh of relief for Ottawa, but given that the Avs have not only a deep prospect pool right now, but they can also add to that with both the fourth overall pick and possibly the 16th overall pick if they don't make the Conference Finals this year. Let's also not forget that the Avs were drafting fourth a couple years ago, and they took Cale Makar, who figures to be a future stud on thee blue line and will likely be making his NHL debut when the Avs start the playoffs.

2019 NHL Playoffs: Western Conference Preview

The Western Conference was mostly a free-for-all, with many teams jockeying for position, especially in the Central Division. In the end, there was one clear cut favorite, and even they have question marks heading into the playoffs. Let's see who the participants are:

(1) Nashville Predators vs. (4) Dallas Stars

The Predators survived a tough Central Division where they, St. Louis, and Winnipeg all vied for the division crown on the last day of the season. They have the offensive firepower, but had their issues with consistency, particularly on the power play. The good news is that the offense found its spark late in the season, and appears to be hot at the right time. Defensively, the effort was in and out, with some of the blame being on whether or not the team may have gotten bored at times. As is the case with the offense, the defense came back at the right time, and that is good news for either Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros, both of whom were the most consistent parts of the team.

The Stars had to make a bit of a spirited run to secure a spot as a wild card. They're still led by Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov, and Jamie Benn up front, but the lack of scoring depth up front is concerning. It becomes more pronounced when players such as Valeri Nichushkin haven't played to expectations. Defensively, what was perceived as a weakness for the last few years is now at the very least passable. Yes, John Klingberg is still a liability in his own end, but his skill offensively combined with being paired with a guy like Marc Methot or Roman Polak helped stabilize the unit. It has helped that Miro Heiskanen has done well as a rookie on the blue line. Goaltending was really good, as Ben Bishop was great when healthy. Of course, that is the rub, as health continues to be a concern. Fortunately for Dallas, Anton Khudobin is a more than capable fill-in.

Prediction: Predators in 6

(2) Winnipeg Jets vs. (3) St. Louis Blues

The Jets started out hot, but then faltered late to fall into the second spot in the Central Division. Injuries certainly played a role, as did Connor Hellebuyck coming back to Earth a little bit during the season. It will remain to be seen if Hellebuyck finds that extra gear in the playoffs or if Laurent Brossoit, if healthy, will have to try and save the day. Defensively, this was where injuries hit the hardest, as Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey both missed considerable time. Both are expected to be ready to go by the first game, which bodes well. Up front, the offensive power outage of Patrik Laine remains one of the season's biggest mysteries, as he failed to make a major impact this season. With a new contract looming and the playoffs approaching, this would be the perfect time for him to rediscover his scoring touch. The good news is that both Mark Schiefele and Blake Wheeler performed to expectations while Nikolaj Ehlers is also healthy after missing some time to injuries.

St. Louis looked like a heavily underachieving team in the middle of the season by the time they canned Mike Yeo as head coach and inserted Craig Berube to fill in. One smart move to go with Jordan Binnington as the starting goaltender later, the Blues almost went from out of the playoffs to division champs. They are the hottest team in the league right now, and Binnington is a major reason for that. A defensive unit that looked lost under Yeo suddenly played well, with Alex Pietrangelo finding a rhythm once he was taken off a pairing with Jay Bouwmeester, who himself played well enough to earn another year with the Blues next season. Offensively, Vladimir Tarasenko looked like he was going through the motions in the first half of the season before he found his scoring touch. Ryan O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn were the most consistent players on the team, and the sometimes maligned David Perron showed that he could go on a hot streak offensively if needed.

Prediction: Jets in 7

(1) Calgary Flames vs. (4) Colorado Avalanche

For a team that finished near the bottom offensively a season ago, the Calgary Flames finally played to their paper expectations. Yes, Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan led the way, but it was the likes of Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, and Mark Giordano that also saw spikes in their production. Defensively, Giordano showed that he has something left even at 36 while Travis Hamonic, TJ Brodie, and Noah Hanifin all provide a very solid top four defensive unit. In goal, Mike Smith was good when healthy, but that was the thing that felled him again. The good news was that David Rittich took full advantage of the time and established himself as not only the goaltender of right now, but possibly the future. Still, neither has had a long track record of playoff performances, and this, along with James Neal, will be a deciding factor in whether they make a deep run this year.

Colorado once again, needed almost the entire season to make the playoffs, and this time, they also needed a 10 game winning streak to overtake both Arizona and Minnesota for that spot. Their goaltending was dreadful for the first half of the season, and it looked like they were wasting the production of both Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Now, it appears that both Phillipp Grubauer and Semyon Varlamov are finding their games; it's all a matter of who truly has the hotter hand. Defensively, this unit is acceptable, as there is no superstar player. Tyson Barrie is essentially a forward cast as a defender, but Nikita Zadorov has become the physical player that the Avs haven't had since Adam Foote last patrolled the blue line. One player to possibly watch is Cale Makar, fresh off a breakthrough college run that saw him become a Hobey Baker finalist. Offensively, it is the MacKinnon and Rantanen show, as they are basically the whole show there. They still need some help, and it is unknown where that help up front will be.

Prediction: Flames in 6

(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (3) Vegas Golden Knights

The Sharks on paper, look like a team that should make a deep playoff run. However, they also didn't play as well as the unit that was assembled, as there were times when they played uninspired. Up front, Evander Kane was the most consistent player there while the likes of Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski all had their ups and downs. Tomas Hertl had a breakthrough year, and it is expected that he will continue that trend. Defensively, this was supposed to be a scary group, but only Brent Burns played to expectations. Erik Karlsson looked like he was still not the same player prior to surgery prior to last season and the rest of the unit just didn't do a lot. The normally excellent goaltending also had their troubles, as Martin Jones came back down a little while Aaron Dell wasn't the answer at times.

It had to end some time for the Vegas Golden Knights, as teams weren't taken by surprise this time around. Still, any team that has a healthy Marc-Andre Fleury and a capable Malcolm Subban should still scare you, both showed flashes of brilliance during the season, especially Fleury, who was undoubtedly the team's MVP this season. Defensively, this is still a no-name unit that plays solidly, a product of good coaching from Gerard Gallant. Offensively, they were supposed to get more from newcomers such as Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny, but that didn't materialize as well as they hoped, which was why they went out and got Mark Stone.

Prediction: Sharks in 7

2019 NHL Playoffs: Eastern Conference preview

Another regular season is in the books, and although the top team was never really in doubt, the rest of the league had some interesting battles. The playoffs are a different time where things are amplified. What does the Eastern Conference bring?

(1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (4) Columbus Blue Jackets

The Lightning were the best team in the league all season, having clinched the Presidents Trophy long before anyone else ever claimed a playoff spot. Nikita Kucherov leads a high-powered offense and though Steven Stamkos is no longer the offensive focal point, he is still a force, as are Brayden Point, Tyler Johnson, and JT Miller, among others. Defensively, Victor Hedman was the best player there, with Mikhail Sergachev, Ryan McDonagh, and Anton Stralman all playing solid in their roles. Goaltending shouldn't be a question mark, as Andrei Vasilievsky was great and Louis Domingue was good when he had to fill in for a few games. Given that the Lightning wrapped everything up by mid-March, will they find their motivation fast enough?

The Blue Jackets are all in this year, as they chose to hang onto both Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin despite neither having any stated intentions of remaining with the team once their contracts expire after the season. To further amplify that point, they traded for the expiring contracts of Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel while giving up a hefty sum to the Senators in separate trades. The continued development of Pierre-Luc Dubois is going to be important, as will whether or not Bobrovsky can finally shake off the playoff bugaboo that's plagued him in his entire career. Defensively, there should be no problems, as Seth Jones and Zach Werenski lead a very good group while Cam Atkinson also provides offense in addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Panarin, and Dubois.

Prediction: Lightning in 5

(2) Boston Bruins vs. (3) Toronto Maple Leafs

The Bruins were solidly the second best team in the East despite a rash of injuries that took out key players at varying points in the season. Brad Marchand has become the super pest that can both get under players' skin and score 40 goals in a season. He's not alone offensively, as David Pastrnak enjoyed a breakout season while the likes of David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Jake DeBrusk also contributed offensively. Defensively, Zdeno Chara showed no signs of slowing down even as he is going deeper into his 40's. The key defensively, however, will be the youth, as both Brandon Carlo and Charlie MacAvoy both need to be healthy to allow the Bruins a chance at a deep playoff run. In goal, Tuukka Rask doesn't seem to get enough respect with his own hometown team despite putting up solid number this season. Having a seasoned vet in Jaroslav Halak behind him is nice.

The Maple Leafs were the trendy favorite to possibly win it all after a hot start. Then, their defense fell apart, and now things aren't looking as rosy. Still, any team that can boast the likes of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner should still be a force to be reckoned with. Where the fate of the Maple Leafs' playoff hopes lie is William Nylander, who has yet to live up to his new contract. Even with the addition of Jake Muzzin, there are still massive holes defensively, as only Morgan Rielly shows any signs of being the defender the team desperately needs. Travis Dermott is good, but nowhere near the level of even Muzzin. In goal, Frederik Andersen was inconsistent, and now that Garrett Sparks is out for the series due to off-ice issues, that puts a lot of pressure on the team.

Prediction: Bruins in 7

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (4) Carolina Hurricanes

The Capitals waited until the final week of the season to once again, reign supreme at the top of the Metropolitan Division. While the Caps weren't dominant at all during the season, it should be noted that they were also not dominant heading into last year's playoffs, and they ended up winning it all then. Any team that begins with Alex Ovechkin should be considered a threat to repeat, and throw in Niklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Jakub Vrana, and the Capitals are very good in scoring. John Carlson leads the way defensively, and though the Caps are largely unknown behind him, this is still a very good group that can play well as a unit. In goal, Braden Holtby was more consistent during the regular season, and that should bode well for him heading into the playoffs. He'll likely never be the Vezina winning goalie of a few years ago, but he also showed that he does indeed have an extra gear in the playoffs.

The Hurricanes were near the bottom of the division at the end of 2018. Somewhere along the way, the team started to win, and win some more, with PNC Arena becoming more favorable to the team, although the road was also good to them as well, having won 22 games away from PNC. Sebastian Aho is the best scorer on the team, with Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov not far behind. Justin Williams is the leader the team desperately needed, and he still has the reputation of being clutch in the playoffs. Defensively, this is largely a no-name group, but don't discount the contributions of Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, and Trevor van Riemsdyk. In goal, it is now Petr Mrazek's team, now, with Curtis McElhinney providing a good backup option. The Hurricanes come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league.

Prediction: Hurricanes in 7

(2) New York Islanders vs. (3) Pittsburgh Penguins

Everything that the Islanders did this regular season compared to last year can be attributed to a team-wide buy into what both Barry Trotz and Lou Lamoriello were selling. This team wasn't supposed to be good with John Tavares leaving for Toronto, but they nearly ended up winning the division thanks to an Anders Lee that was out to prove that his numbers weren't merely a product of playing with Tavares. The likes of Matt Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, and Brock Nelson were also helpful. Defensively, the personnel didn't really change, but the results did, as a team that was dead last in that category actually finished first in team GAA, as Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss had bounce back years after being dreadful in Buffalo and the Island, respectively, the year before. It helped that the team in front of them were more committed to team defense. Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and others helped spearhead a revival there, and with more youth on the way and finally pointed in the right direction, the Islanders could surprise now and in the future.

Pittsburgh mostly sleepwalked through the season, as key players had injuries, and only Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel played anywhere near expectations. Still, the team played well enough to make it again thanks to timely goaltending, and a defense that knows when to turn it on. Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are going to be important to get untracked, as Malkin had a dreadful +/- despite good point totals while Kessel wasn't the same Kessel of old. Defensively, Kris Letang will need to show that last year's playoff showing isn't a sign that he's losing a step while the rest of the unit will need to step up. In goal, it's still Matt Murray's crease, but how long before his playoff magic finally runs out? It showed signs last season, but was it an aberration or just the beginning?

Prediction: Islanders in 7

Nomadic ICE

In a move that was expected for some time, the Kootenay ICE will be relocating next season to Winnipeg, MB. As you can see in the picture, the new Winnipeg team will be retaining the ICE logo and colors save for the city/region name, as it will mark the second time the franchise has moved since it came into the Western Hockey League as the Edmonton Ice. As a team playing in Cranbrook, BC, the ICE have had on-ice success, claiming two league titles. However, as one of the smallest markets in all of the Canadian Hockey League, filling up the Western Financial Place was a pretty big task, especially since only Swift Current had a smaller barn.

As for what will happen once the franchise moves to Winnipeg, their first two seasons will be played at the Wayne Fleming Arena on the campus of the University of Manitoba. The implied plan is that a new arena will be built for the franchise, meaning that they won't be a third occupant in the Bell MTS Place, which already houses both the NHL's Jets and the AHL's Manitoba Moose. In the process, the move will also mean that the ICE will be moving to the East Division and an instant rivalry with fellow Manitoba squad in the Brandon Wheat Kings while the Swift Current Broncos move to the Central Division.

Now or Never Time?

Earlier in the week, the Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes swapped former first round picks in the hope that either or both teams will get their anemic offenses going. The trade also symbolizes a need for all the participants in the trade to justify their status as first round picks.

The Coyotes will get Nick Schmaltz, who was the 20th overall pick in 2014. He had a pretty good first season in the league, scoring 21 times last year. However, he has only scored twice with nine helpers. The Blackhawks get Brendan Perlini and Dylan Strome. Perlini, the 11th overall pick in 2014, scored 17 goals last year, but has been held to just two goals and four helpers this season. Strome was the third overall pick in 2015 behind Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, and has had trouble sticking in the NHL, as he has been back and forth between the NHL and AHL since turning pro last season. He scored three goals and three helpers prior to the trade this season.

Both teams have struggled with offense, as the Coyotes haven't gotten the bang for their buck from players such as Alex Galchenyuk and Clayton Keller while having injury issues with Anttii Raanta. The Blackhawks are having the same issues, but with more depth issues. Adding both Strome and Perlini should at least mean more chances to score, but whether or not it means anything in the grand scheme of things this year remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Schmaltz is another in the long line of changes for the Coyotes, who jettisoned Max Domi for Galchneyuk, only for Domi to already match his goal total from last year, and it's not December yet. For nothing else, the trade is a wake up call for all involved and may very well change the fortunes of the teams if any of them pan out.

Cutting Room

The past month has seen some changes in the NHL, as four teams as of this writing have changed head coaches in the middle of the season...and it's not December, yet. Let's run them down, and look at who may be next to go.

• The Chicago Blackhawks parted ways with Joel Quennville and replaced him with Jeremy Colliton, who was the head coach of the team's AHL affiliate in Rockford. The Quennville firing comes as a shock, but the reality was there was a major butting of heads lately between Quennville and General Manager Stan Bowman. Someone had to go, and soon, the other half may be gone by the end of the season, so this change is definitely a referendum on Bowman, who has put the Blackhawks on the verge of salary cap hell and hasn't adequately addressed the team's depth problem lately.
• The Los Angeles Kings were also in the mood to fire their head coach, as John Stevens was given his walking papers. Willie Desjardins was named interim coach. Stevens had a decent regular season last year, but his inability to get any offense out of the team come playoff time was exposed, and it has been further exposed this season despite adding Ilya Kovalchuk in the off-season. While Desjardins is an interim coach, was it really the best decision? Marco Sturm is the likely head coach in waiting, and skipping the middle man would have made more sense, although the Kings haven't been able to field a healthy goaltending unit lately, since Cal Petersen, he of a handful of games thus far, is now on the NHL roster until the likes of Peter Budaj and Jonathan Quick can get healthy again.
• Speaking of the Kings, they were the last team that Mike Yeo would be facing as the head coach of the St. Louis Blues. The Blues were shut out last night by that team, and an offensive dry spell that topped a team struggling to meet expectations meant the Mike Yeo experiment it over. Before I get to who is replacing him, it should be noted that the Blues hand-picked Yeo to replace Ken Hitchcock after the 2016-17 season, only to speed up that process by a few months, as Hitchcock was fired for Yeo. Just over two years later, Yeo is now looking for a new job. His replacement is...Craig Berube? This may be an interim move, but given that Berube was terrible as head coach in Philadelphia, it almost seems like the Blues WANT to fail.
• Spekaing of Hitchcock, he was lured out of retirement...again, as the Edmonton Oilers fired Todd MacClellan this morning. Hitchcock will be behind the bench for at least the rest of the season. One has to wonder if General Manager Peter Chiarrelli should be answering the phone because his job is now on the line. A team that has underachieved despite Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and is also on the verge of salary cap hell, the Oilers may need to do more than just fire the head coach.

So, who could be the next coach to go? Randy Carlyle in Anaheim seems like a safe bet, as does Jeff Blashill in Detroit and Guy Boucher in Ottawa.